(3)   Crypto Daybook Americas: Tariff Cut Lifts Bitcoin as Market Readies for Further Gains

Your day-ahead look for May 12, 2025

By Jamie Crawley, James Van Straten, Omkar Godbole, Shaurya Malwa|Edited by Sheldon Reback

May 12, 2025, 7:15 a.m.

Progress in U.S.-China trade talks lifted bitcoin over $105,000 for a while. (Ben Bryant /Shutterstock)Read More

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By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Tariff developments remain at the forefront of global economic news, with bitcoin (BTC) surging past $105,000 for a while following the surprise announcement that the U.S. will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% from 145% for 90 days. In return, China will lower tariffs on U.S. goods to 10% from 125% over the same period.

Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin to $1M as U.S.-China Seal Empty Trade Deal

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Ether (ETH), for its part, is experiencing its strongest monthly performance since November, having added over 40% since the start of May. The ETH/BTC ratio has climbed to 0.02440, its highest in nearly three months, highlighting renewed appetite for risk-on assets. Meanwhile, Nasdaq futures jumped more than 3% on the tariff news, further reinforcing the positive market sentiment.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has pushed above 101, while WTI crude oil also rallied. Conversely, gold has declined by more than 3%, approaching a 10% drop from its all-time high. Investors are now turning their attention to Tuesday’s inflation report, with expectations that headline year-over-year inflation for April will remain steady at 2.4%.

Strategy (MSTR) held its annual meeting last week, showcasing updates on its Business and Artificial Intelligence (BI/AI) software initiatives and reaffirming its commitment to corporate bitcoin adoption. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor underscored Strategy’s leadership as the foremost public bitcoin treasury, currently holding over 555,555 BTC.

Saylor reiterated the company’s unwavering commitment to further bitcoin accumulation. Strategy plans to continue leveraging AI to enhance operational efficiency and explore innovative strategies for expanding its BTC holdings.

What to Watch

  • Crypto:
  • Macro
    • Day 4 of 4: Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold trade talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during his visit to Switzerland.
    • May 12, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases March industrial production data.
      • Industrial Production MoM Prev. 2.5%
      • Industrial Production YoY Prev. -1.3%
    • May 13, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases April consumer price inflation data.
      • Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.1%
      • Core Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 2.8%
      • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. -0.1%
      • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.4% vs. Prev. 2.4%
    • May 14, 3 p.m.: Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Census releases April inflation data.
      • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 3.7%
      • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 55.9%
    • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
      • May 12: Exodus Movement (EXOD), post-market
      • May 13: Semler Scientific (SMLR), post-market
      • May 14: Bitfarms (BITF), pre-market
      • May 14: IREN (IREN), post-market
      • May 15: Bit Digital (BTBT), post-market
      • May 15: Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR), pre-market
      • May 15: KULR Technology Group (KULR), post-market

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
    • A Sei Network developer proposed ending support for Cosmos to simplify the blockchain and align more closely with Ethereum to reduce complexity and infrastructure overhead and boost Sei's adoption.
    • May 12: Helium (HNT) proposal HIP 144 voting ends on authorizing Nova Labs to introduce a 30-day delay, or Rewards Escrow period, to the process of claiming rewards for Helium Mobile.
    • May 15, 10 a.m.: Moca Network to host a Discord townhall session discussing network updates.
  • Unlocks
    • May 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.82% of its circulating supply worth $68.54 million.
    • May 13: WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) to unlock 27.41% of its circulating supply worth $1.2 billion.
    • May 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 4.09% of its circulating supply worth $23.87 million.
    • May 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.09% of its circulating supply worth $14.91 million.
  • Token Launches
    • May 12: Jerry The Turtle (JYAI) to be listed on LBank with JYAI/USDT pair.
    • May 12: Space and Time (SXT) to be listed on Bitrue with SXT/USDT pair.
    • May 16: Galxe (GAL), Litentry (LIT), Mines of Dalarnia (DAR), Orion Protocol (ORN), and PARSIQ (PRQ) to be delisted from Coinbase.

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